Preseason Rankings
Old Dominion
Conference USA
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#102
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.4#329
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#178
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#45
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 17.6% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 4.5% 0.6%
Average Seed 26.7 11.6 13.1
.500 or above 83.0% 85.5% 63.9%
.500 or above in Conference 76.0% 75.3% 81.3%
Conference Champion 18.3% 19.5% 9.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 0.9%
First Four1.9% 2.1% 0.6%
First Round15.6% 16.7% 7.2%
Second Round4.5% 4.9% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Home) - 88.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 0.80.1 - 0.8
Quad 1b0.2 - 0.90.3 - 1.7
Quad 21.8 - 2.92.1 - 4.6
Quad 37.0 - 4.79.1 - 9.3
Quad 410.8 - 1.819.9 - 11.1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 260   Navy W 66-56 89%    
  Nov 09, 2018 106   @ Saint Joseph's W 67-66 39%    
  Nov 16, 2018 82   Oregon St. L 63-65 43%    
  Nov 17, 2018 338   Kennesaw St. W 73-56 93%    
  Nov 19, 2018 116   Northern Iowa W 60-59 52%    
  Nov 23, 2018 116   Northern Iowa W 60-59 63%    
  Nov 28, 2018 127   Virginia Commonwealth W 68-67 65%    
  Dec 01, 2018 176   James Madison W 68-63 77%    
  Dec 05, 2018 164   William & Mary W 73-69 73%    
  Dec 09, 2018 220   Fairfield W 71-63 81%    
  Dec 15, 2018 12   @ Syracuse L 55-66 12%    
  Dec 19, 2018 130   @ Richmond W 68-66 45%    
  Dec 22, 2018 339   Morgan St. W 74-57 95%    
  Jan 03, 2019 99   Marshall L 73-74 58%    
  Jan 05, 2019 60   Western Kentucky L 66-71 45%    
  Jan 10, 2019 266   @ Florida Atlantic W 70-60 72%    
  Jan 12, 2019 226   @ Florida International W 70-62 65%    
  Jan 17, 2019 141   Louisiana Tech W 66-64 68%    
  Jan 19, 2019 163   Southern Miss W 67-63 72%    
  Jan 21, 2019 301   @ Charlotte W 75-63 78%    
  Jan 24, 2019 249   @ UTEP W 68-59 69%    
  Jan 26, 2019 158   @ Texas San Antonio W 72-68 52%    
  Jan 31, 2019 132   North Texas W 66-64 64%    
  Feb 02, 2019 323   Rice W 72-58 92%    
  Feb 07, 2019 187   @ UAB W 68-63 58%    
  Feb 09, 2019 157   @ Middle Tennessee W 65-61 52%    
  Feb 16, 2019 301   Charlotte W 75-63 89%    
  Feb 23, 2019 60   Western Kentucky L 66-71 44%    
  Feb 28, 2019 158   @ Texas San Antonio W 72-68 52%    
  Mar 06, 2019 163   Southern Miss W 67-63 73%    
  Mar 09, 2019 187   @ UAB W 68-63 58%    
Projected Record 19.9 - 11.1 11.6 - 6.4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.1 3.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 4.1 5.5 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.6 5.4 2.1 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.3 5.0 1.5 0.2 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.2 1.7 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.5 1.8 0.2 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.8 4.5 5.9 8.4 9.7 11.8 12.9 11.9 10.8 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 28.4% 3.1    0.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-1 6.5% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-2 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-3 0.0%
10-4 0.0%
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 1.1 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 10.8% 21.3% 18.4% 2.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.5 3.5%
13-1 11.9% 16.1% 15.3% 0.8% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 10.0 0.9%
12-2 12.9% 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 11.6 0.0%
11-3 11.8% 6.5% 6.5% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 11.1
10-4 9.7% 4.7% 4.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.3
9-5 8.4% 3.6% 3.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.1
8-6 5.9% 1.8% 1.8% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.8
7-7 4.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 4.4
6-8 2.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.7
5-9 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-10 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-11 0.4% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-12 0.1% 0.1
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14
Total 100% 7.2% 6.8% 0.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.1 0.4 92.8 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.2 37.4 2.7 3.4 19.7 36.1 0.7